Archived Analysis

A snapshot of Modern from January 7, 2026.

Modern: Aggression increases, player base shrinks.
Analysis from January 7, 2026

The Modern format lands right in the middle this week, posting a Final Health Index of 54.0. While this suggests moderate stability, the primary takeaway is the extreme shift toward aggression coupled with a dramatic drop in participation. Aggro currently holds 51.1% of the entire metagame, a significant jump above the historical 5-year average of 45.6%. This skew, combined with Event Growth and Player Growth scores scraping the bottom at 1.0 and 1.1 respectively, paints a picture of a fast but shrinking environment.

Digging into the specific metrics, we see decent Metagame Diversity (74.8) and a stellar Archetype Distribution Score (92.5), indicating that while Aggro is the primary strategy, there is still wide variation in *how* decks are structured. However, the raw data on attendance is grim: Paper participation is declining at an average of -40.2% per month, and MTGO participation is dropping at -26.5% monthly. On the battlefield, Boros Aggro is the undisputed deck to beat this week at 14.6% of the meta, followed by Death And Taxes (11%) and Affinity (9%). Control (19.4%) and Combo (29.5%) are clearly struggling to keep up with the aggressive surge, confirming that Aggro currently dictates the pace of the format.

The high B&R Health Score of 88.0 aligns with the recent decision to make no card changes, reflecting the designers' confidence in the format's ability to self-correct. However, the community pulse remains highly polarized. Discussions are dominated by the format’s accelerating speed and the dominance of cards introduced in the latest supplemental sets, with *Nulldrifter* frequently cited as the poster child for current power creep. Players are actively experimenting with the new *Flare* cycle, noting the successful integration of *Flare of Cultivation* into Amulet Titan for explosive starts. Furthermore, the resilience of the new Incarnation cycle and the ubiquitous presence of four-color control shells are key points of contention, leading to widespread demand for intervention regarding cards like *Wrenn and Six* and concerns about the rising financial barrier to entry.

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Archived on: 1/7/2026, 3:12:26 PM

    Modern: Aggression increases, player base shrinks. | MtG Health Index Archive