Archived Analysis

A snapshot of Modern from October 7, 2025.

Modern: Aggressive strategies cause player fatigue.
Analysis from October 7, 2025

Modern is navigating a serious participation drought this week, with a Final Health Index of 54.2 masking a massive collapse in player engagement. The top-line metrics look decent—a Metagame Diversity Score of 73.0 and an excellent Archetype Distribution Score of 93.1—but the underlying Player and Event Growth metrics are grim, both registering a stunning 0.0. This indicates a -100.0% decline in monthly participation across both Paper and MTGO, signaling significant fatigue among the player base.

Despite the shrinking player pool, the metagame remains fiercely competitive, favoring hyper-efficient strategies. Aggro leads the Super-Archetype breakdown at 41.5%, but Combo is right on its heels at 39.8%. This high concentration of Combo reflects a significant shift from the historical 5-year average, where Combo sat at 33.1%. Control, meanwhile, is struggling at just 18.7% of the meta.

If you are unprepared, you will be crushed by aggression. Boros Aggro is the most popular strategy this week, commanding 10.7% of the Top 10 metagame, with both Death And Taxes and Affinity tied at 8%. However, the main threat dominating discussion remains the overwhelming presence of Rakdos Scam. Community sentiment is high, demanding action against the Evoke element, with many specifically targeting Grief due to its consistency in stifling mid-range strategies.

Despite calls for intervention, the format’s B&R Health Score remains high at 80.0, suggesting confidence that the metagame will self-correct. This correction is already underway, primarily through adaptation. Amulet Titan pilots are increasingly running maindeck Endurance to improve specific matchups, and Murktide Regent lists are cutting Expressive Iteration for more proactive countermagic. Temur Rhinos has also emerged as a contender, specifically tuning its sideboard to handle aggressive pressure. Essential sideboard technology confirms the meta's demands, with Chalice of the Void and Unlicensed Hearse seeing dramatic spikes in play and demand, highlighting the critical nature of fighting specific low-cost spells and denying graveyard recursion.

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Archived on: 10/7/2025, 12:23:46 AM