Archived Analysis

Modern registers a Final Health Index of 66.1 this week, indicating a generally healthy but strained metagame that is currently defined by aggressive strategies. The format is heavily leaning into AGGRO, which now comprises 49.9% of the super-archetype breakdown, significantly outpacing CONTROL (17.4%) and matching COMBO (32.7%). While the format feels robust online, with MTGO participation growing 1.6% monthly, the report highlights an alarming contrast in physical play: paper participation is declining by -24.7% per month.

Digging into the key metrics reveals mixed signals. Metagame Diversity scores well at 71.3, and Archetype Distribution is nearly pristine at 93.7, suggesting genuine depth exists below the surface level. However, participation is struggling, evidenced by weak Event Growth (47.0) and Player Growth (45.3) scores, coinciding with an overall historical downward trend in diversity since 2021.

If you’re planning on winning events, the decks to beat are clear. Death And Taxes leads the charge with 12.4% of the meta share, closely followed by UR Aggro at 11%. Aggro is the primary predator, with Affinity (9%) and the broader 4/5c Aggro and Boros Aggro strategies (both 6%) forming the bulk of the top tier. Niche strategies like Simic Birthing Ritual (2%) are struggling to break through against this heavily slanted field.

Despite the community being highly engaged, intense debate surrounds the power level of the top tier, particularly the continued focus on Rakdos Scam. This has led to strong market speculation regarding staples like Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer. However, the B&R Health Score of 80.0 suggests the format is fundamentally resilient. The community analysis highlights players adapting to the resource denial environment by pushing strategies like Domain Zoo, which leverage Tribal Flames and Scion of Draco, or by tuning existing decks; Temur Rhinos players are adopting Leyline of the Void to cope with the efficient disruption that currently defines competitive play.