Archived Analysis
A snapshot of Modern from October 3, 2025.
Modern rolls into the week sporting a Final Health Index of 63.2. This score suggests the format is stable and performing well, especially given the B&R Health Score is a high 80.0, indicating the format integrity is secure without immediate intervention. The AI analysis confirms this outlook, noting that with no specific card changes to the banlist, the metagame appears to be self-correcting through player adaptation and new card innovations.
Drilling into the metrics reveals a split narrative regarding the format’s foundation. Metagame Diversity sits strong at 71.8, and the Archetype Distribution Score is nearly perfect at 93.4, meaning the mix between the three major Super-Archetypes remains exceptionally balanced. However, participation is struggling: the Event Growth Score (32.9) and Player Growth Score (37.0) reflect concerning declines. Paper participation is dropping sharply at an average of -24.9% per month, although MTGO participation shows relative stability, declining at an average rate of only -1.2% monthly.
Looking at the Top 10, Boros Aggro is the undisputed leader, claiming 12.6% of the metagame share. Affinity and Death And Taxes are tied for second at 7% penetration each, with 4/5c Aggro following at 5%. The Super-Archetype breakdown showcases the current speed of the format: Aggro holds 41.4% of the meta, followed extremely closely by Combo at 38.6%, leaving Control to fight for 20% of the overall pie.
Community discussions continue to focus on the format’s high-octane trajectory and the polarizing influence of recent power creep. The key culprit for frustration remains Leyline of the Guildpact, which is enabling five-color aggression and is the primary target of potential banning discussions among players. While there were no official B&R changes, players consistently praise the suite of pitch elementals—Solitude, Fury, and Endurance—alongside Wrenn and Six for being the necessary glue that allows interaction to function in this high-powered environment. The competitive community appreciates the high skill ceiling, but the casual base expresses frustration, citing the high cost of entry associated with cards like Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer.
Archived on: 10/3/2025, 8:01:53 PM