Vintage: Combo-heavy format sees low diversity

Vintage is currently in a state of flux, showing signs of being combo-heavy, and struggling with participation. It feels like we're in a holding pattern waiting for something to shake things up. The lack of recent B&R changes leaves the format feeling a bit stale.

The Health Index is at 56.1, dragged down by a low Metagame Diversity score of 40.5. Player and event growth are also suffering, with monthly declines in both paper and MTGO attendance. The Archetype Distribution Score is relatively high at 94.1, suggesting the existing archetypes are well-defined, but the low Diversity score hints that those archetypes might not be evenly represented or evolving enough. The B&R Health Score is a middling 65.0, perhaps reflecting the community's divided opinion on the need for changes.

The metagame is dominated by Aggro (32.9%) and Combo (43.9%), leaving Control behind at 23.2%. Hatebear and MUD decks, at 14% and 12% respectively, are the decks to beat. BUG Midrange is at a distant 3%, and a variety of others trail even further. This represents a clear shift from the historical 5-year average, where Aggro was closer to 40% and Combo at 34.8%.

Community chatter on Reddit centers on optimizing Mishra's Workshop variants. Players are swapping lists, debating the best way to balance speed, resilience, and disruption. Sideboard strategies, particularly the effectiveness of Stony Silence and Null Rod, are also hot topics. No specific card is dominating restriction discussions, but the conversation is focused on optimizing existing strategies in the current metagame. The sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with players appreciating the format's depth despite the high cost of entry. The no-change B&R announcement suggests WotC is in "wait and see" mode.