Archived Analysis

Vintage feels a bit shaky this week with a Final Health Index of 50.3. It's not a disaster, but it's a clear sign we need to keep a close eye on things. The data suggests the format is struggling to find a good balance.

Looking at the numbers, the Metagame Diversity Score is sitting at 42.4, showing that things are less diverse than they have been in the past (as evidenced by the Historical Diversity Scores). The Archetype Distribution Score is high at 93.2, but the Event Growth Score is a concerning 15.6, meaning participation is on the decline. The Player Growth Score is 55.2, which is slightly better, but the paper and MTGO trends are conflicting, with paper growing and MTGO shrinking.

If you want to win this week, you need to beat Hatebear and Dimir Control as they are the top decks with 14% and 14.9% representation, respectively. Esper Control is another big player, sitting at 11%. MUD is also a notable contender at 9%. These four archetypes are dominating the landscape.

From the Reddit threads, the community is very aware of the potential dominance of blue-based control decks and the speed of combo finishes. Concerns were raised about oppressive cards, with some focus on potentially restricting cards like Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer, and Orcish Bowmasters to promote greater diversity. The AI analysis pointed out the B&R announcement inaction. It seems the DCI is in a "wait-and-see" mode, hoping the metagame will adjust on its own, especially with the advent of new cards. No specific card changes means the current format is holding steady.