Archived Analysis

Vintage settles this week with a moderate Final Health Index of 61.7. The headline is the extreme top-end polarization. While the Archetype Distribution Score is near perfect at 93.8, suggesting great internal balance across established categories, the Metagame Diversity Score sits low at 41.3. This tension confirms that while many archetypes exist, the few truly dominant strategies are consuming most of the market share, keeping the field tight and potentially repetitive.

Looking deeper, participation trends are currently split. Paper attendance shows healthy growth, increasing by 4.8% per month, which drives the strong 71.1 Player Growth Score. However, MTGO participation is declining by 3.8%. Event availability is a real concern, reflected in the poor 41.8 Event Growth Score, with monthly event counts decreasing at an average rate of 5.0%. This shrinking competitive landscape coincides with a worrisome drop in diversity, falling to a 55.5 score in 2025, significantly down from its recent peak of 68.0 in 2023.

The fight for the format’s crown is intensely close, dominated by three primary strategies: MUD leads the way at 15.2%, followed immediately by Dimir Control at 15%, and Hatebear at 14%. These results emphasize the razor-thin margin separating the format’s three super-archetypes: Control leads at 37.3%, closely trailed by Aggro at 35.8%, with Combo playing third at 26.9%. If you aren't prepared for artifact prison decks utilizing *Mishra's Workshop* or the top two disruption strategies, you will struggle.

Despite the metagame pressure, the B&R Health Score holds firm at 65.0. The analysis summary noted the decision to hold off on banning Lurrus, suggesting the format is in a "wait-and-see" pattern. Community discussion is focused heavily on the integration of *Modern Horizons 3* cards within fast blue shells. Strategies like "Turbo-Xerox," leveraging *Ponder* and *Preordain* to set up *Paradoxical Outcome* or *Doomsday* payoffs, are highlighted as highly consistent. Players are currently divided on the ubiquitous presence of *Mental Misstep*, with some arguing its ubiquity stifles diversity. Meanwhile, new tech like *Nulldrifter* is proving immediately effective in blue strategies for its card advantage, and aggressive Workshop lists are testing *Wasteland Raider* as a recursive threat.