Archived Analysis
A snapshot of Vintage from December 2, 2025.
Vintage currently sits at a respectable 61.7 Final Health Index. The format isn't collapsing, but key metrics suggest significant compression is occurring at the top tables. While the Archetype Distribution is an excellent 93.8, showing good balance across major strategies (Control 37.3%, Aggro 35.8%), the Metagame Diversity Score is a low 41.3. This suggests that while the format is broadly balanced, the actual number of viable unique decks is minimal. This compression is reflected in the historical data, where the diversity score has tumbled from 68.0 in 2023 to 55.5 now. Participation trends are mixed: Paper play is growing robustly at 4.8% monthly, but MTGO play is declining at -3.8%, mirroring the overall Event Growth decline of -5.0%.
The metagame is heavily concentrated around three main strategies. MUD and Dimir Control are essentially neck-and-neck, dominating the field at 15.2% and 15% respectively. Hatebear is right behind them, claiming 14% of the meta share. Combined, these three decks represent over 44% of the reported metagame, reinforcing the low diversity score. Other successful lists like BUG Midrange (3%) and Bazaar Aggro (0.7%) are currently fighting hard for relevance outside the top tier.
The B&R Health Score (65.0) reflects the current "wait-and-see" approach, with no recent card changes implemented. Community discussion is focused on the high tension between fast blue strategies and oppressive artifact prison decks utilizing Mishra’s Workshop. The primary card generating debate is *Mental Misstep*; players are deeply divided on whether its ubiquity stifles diversity or serves as necessary format police.
Recent tech highlights include *Nulldrifter*, which is proving to be a highly flexible and powerful staple in blue control and tempo strategies. We are also seeing renewed interest in "Turbo-Xerox" strategies utilizing *Ponder* and *Preordain* to quickly assemble fast combo pieces, often featuring *Paradoxical Outcome* or *Doomsday* as the preferred payoff, confirming the perceived dominance of hyper-efficient turn-one blue strategies.
Archived on: 12/2/2025, 1:23:05 AM